How to find outlier videos on TikTok, Instagram and YouTube
An outlier is a video that gets far more views than its creator usually gets. Here is the formula, the threshold to use, and how to find them without a spreadsheet.
Paste a profile link. No creator login needed.
What an outlier video is
An outlier is judged against its own creator, not against the platform. A video with 50,000 views is an outlier for an account that normally gets 5,000 and nothing special for one that normally gets 60,000.
That is why outliers are useful. They show what worked for an audience that was already there, so the lesson is the content, not the size of the account.
The formula
Outlier score = a video’s views ÷ the creator’s usual views.
For “usual”, use the median views of the creator’s recent videos, not the average. One viral video can pull an average up for months. A median shrugs it off.
A creator’s last 20 videos have a median of 53,000 views. A new video has 412,000.
412,000 ÷ 53,000 = 7.7x. That is an outlier.
The choice of “usual” changes the answer. Take a creator whose last 20 videos include 19 at 50,000 views and one viral video at 1,500,000. A new video gets 140,000 views.
| Usual views based on | Usual views | Outlier score | Verdict at a 2x line |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average of 20 videos | 122,500 | 1.1x | Looks ordinary |
| Median of 20 videos | 50,000 | 2.8x | A winner |
Which threshold to use
Many guides use 3x as the line for a real outlier, and treat 1.5x to 3x as worth a look but not yet a pattern. There is no official standard, so pick a line and stay consistent.
By default, Firnway uses 2x for a winner and 5x for a huge winner, and you can change both. It also asks for at least 1,000 views, and at least 5 earlier videos to set the normal, because tiny accounts swing wildly. A lower line shows you more candidates. A higher line shows you only the obvious ones.
Give new videos time
A video posted an hour ago has not had time to collect its views, so comparing it with settled videos is unfair. Leave out videos younger than about two days, or compare them with what earlier videos had at the same age. Firnway treats anything under 48 hours as still collecting.
How to find them by hand
- List the creators or competitors you want to watch.
- For each, copy the views of their last 20 settled videos into a sheet.
- Take the median of those views.
- Divide each newer video’s views by that median.
- Mark everything above your threshold, then repeat every week.
How Firnway does it for you
Paste a profile link on TikTok, Instagram or YouTube. Firnway imports the videos, works out the median, scores every new video, and lists the winners. It also labels each winner’s hook, topic and format, so you can see what your outliers have in common.
What to do with an outlier
- Watch the first three seconds. On short video, the hook is usually the lesson.
- Name the topic and the format in plain words.
- Look for the same pattern in a second outlier before you trust it.
- Make your own version and score it the same way.
Questions
- Why median and not average?
- One viral video raises an average for a long time, which hides the next real breakout. A median stays steady.
- How many videos do I need for a baseline?
- By default, Firnway wants at least 5 earlier videos and uses up to 20. With fewer than that, a score is mostly noise.
- Does it work for YouTube Shorts and long videos together?
- They behave differently, so a creator's mix of formats can distort the median. Compare like with like where you can.
- Is 3x the right line?
- It is a common convention, not a rule. Start at 2x to see more candidates and raise it if you get too many.